Protests surge. Violence flares. And troops swoop in, claiming they're trying to calm things down but not taking over.Today, that's the situation in Thailand, where the army declared martial law in a surprise move
without informing the country's embattled Prime Minister. But we've
heard the same sort of explanation a few times recently from military
leaders in other countries that are going through political turmoil.Is this deja vu, military
coup style? What's fueling the situation in Thailand? Who's in charge?
What could happen next? And why should you be paying attention?
At dawn on Tuesday, Thai
TV networks showed troops armed and at the ready, running in formation
and toting guns. They also broadcast statements from military leaders
repeating a key message: Don't panic. This is not a coup. But we're in
charge now -- at least when it comes to national security.
Apparently, that was news to the country's embattled acting prime minister."They took this action unilaterally," an aide to the prime minister told CNN, describing the situation as "half a coup d'etat."
Human Rights Watch said Tuesday that declaring martial law "is effectively a coup that threatens the human rights of all Thais."The law includes restrictions on where protesters can gather, what TV and radio broadcasters can air and social media posts, according to the Bangkok Post.
Several analysts told CNN it isn't a coup -- yet.
Acting Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan's government remains intact, his chief security adviser said."Everything is normal,"
Paradorn Pattanatabu told Thai public broadcaster MCOT, "except the
military is responsible for all national security issues."
This sounds familiar. How does it compare to what we've seen in other countries?
Around the world, we've heard a lot about coups recently.
In Libya, some troops have been arguing that increasing military power that's rallying behind a renegade local general isn't anything to worry about. But the Libyan government and the military command in Tripoli reacted with alarm,
saying that they didn't order retired Gen. Khalifa Haftar's deadly
attacks against Islamist militants last week, and that the operation --
which they conceded included some Libyan soldiers -- amounted to a coup.
In February, Ukraine's President claimed a coup
had forced him from office, while lawmakers said they were following
the will of the people when Parliament voted to oust him and hold new
elections.
A military coup in Egypt last year ousted President Mohamed Morsy from office and placed an interim leader in power. A debate surged afterward about whether a coup was an appropriate term to use for the ouster.
At this point, in Thailand, it seems like the government and military remain allied.
There are a few key things about the military's announcement that officials around the world say they're watching closely:
-- Military leaders said martial law is temporary, but they haven't said when it will end.
-- They've said their goal is easing tensions and bringing rival parties together for talks.
-- And they haven't named a new government.
How did things get to this point?
Political tensions are
running so high in Thailand that a large swath of the population wants
to see a change in leadership but opposes elections because they don't
trust the government to guarantee they're free and fair.
Those are the so-called
yellow shirts, predominately urban, middle-class supporters of the
royalist establishment. They've been staging massive protests in the
country's capital for months and boycotted elections in February.Backing the government are the so-called red shirts, many of whom hail from the country's rural north and northeast.The two groups have been at the center of political divides in the country for years, with simmering tensions boiling over into violent clashes between protesters and government forces.
The latest flashpoint occurred this month, when caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from government after the Thai Constitutional Court ruled that she was guilty of violating the constitution.
The pro-government red
shirts saw her ouster as a "judicial coup" and have been protesting what
they consider a bias by many of the country's institutions against
their side.
Three anti-government protesters were killed and 23 injured
when gunmen opened fire on a protest camp last week, prompting a
warning from the army chief that troops would have to step in if the
situation didn't calm down.Later that day,
anti-government protesters stormed the grounds of an air force compound,
forcing the country's interim prime minister to flee a meeting.
What's next?
Thailand's army chief, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, says the next step is bringing "rival parties to talk in peace."But it isn't clear whether the opposing sides have any interest in sitting down and talking to each other.What will happen, analysts say, depends on what the military does in the coming days and how protesters respond.Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a
political science professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok,
described the situation as "very volatile.""This is a precarious time now for the army," he said. "They have to be evenhanded.""If it's seen as favoring one side or the other side, then we could see more violence and turmoilagainst the military."
Has anything like this ever happened before in Thailand?
Thailand is no stranger to military coups.There have been 18 military coups attempted there in 80 years; 11 have been successful.The last one was in 2006 when the military sent tanks onto the streets before ousting then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.But times have changed, said Paul Quaglia, a 20-year veteran of the CIA and director of risk assessment firm PQA Associates.
"They really are out of
the business of staging coups now in 2014," he said. "That being said,
they may have to take more assertive action in the days to come if one
or the other of the opposing camps do not accept martial law and
continue to defy it."
Why should I care about this?
Thailand's political
instability could have an impact beyond the country's borders. The
months of protests have already hurt Thailand's economy and run the risk
of making the country less attractive to investors and governments
looking to strike up deals, analysts say.
"A reputation for
perpetual political unrest would definitely hurt Thailand's
competitiveness and attractiveness to foreign investment in the future,"
the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a December analysis of the political crisis.
"Known as the 'Detroit
of the East,' Thailand has risen to become a vital manufacturing and
assembly hub of hard-disk drives and automobiles for Japanese and
Western firms," the analysis said.
A recent report from the U.S. Congressional Research Service notes that amid the turmoil, "Bangkok's reliability as a partner, and its ability to be a regional leader, are uncertain."
"A stable Thailand is
strategically important to the United States, both because of its status
as a U.S. treaty ally and as an anchor for mainland Southeast Asia,"
the report said. "U.S. policymakers are faced with how to deal with an
unraveling democracy and how to respond to profound concerns about the
civilian-military balance in Thai society."
The State Department has
said it's closely following this week's developments and hopes
Thailand's military leaders will keep their word.
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