Today, in India's remote northeastern states of Assam and Tripura,
the first wave of the country's 814 million eligible voters will cast
their ballots as the largest election in world history gets underway.
Any time the world's most
populous democracy goes to the polls, it's a momentous undertaking. But
with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stepping aside after a decade in
charge, analysts say voting will take on an even greater significance
this time around, with the country potentially poised on the cusp of a
new political era.
Amid widespread public
concern over corruption, rising inflation and slowing economic growth,
voters will be faced with a choice between the young scion of India's
most powerful political dynasty, and a populist, business-minded Hindu
nationalist who is described as at once India's most popular and most
divisive politician."This election is a
battle of ideologies, it's a battle for (the) kind of India we want,"
declared 43-year-old Congress Party candidate Rahul Gandhi -- whose
great-grandfather, grandmother and father have all served as prime
minister -- in a recent speech.
The outcome of the
election, which will be held in stages over five weeks -- employing 11
million polling and security personnel and absorbing an estimated $5
billion in campaigning costs -- may have stark ramifications for India's
identity at home and abroad.
After a decade of
coalition government led by the secular, center-left Congress Party
(INC), which has ruled for most of the post-independence era, support is
soaring for India's other major political party.Polling suggests a strong swing to the center-right, Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a recent survey by the Pew Research Center finding voters preferred the BJP to lead the next government by a margin of more than three to one.
The party's support has
been boosted by the immense popularity of prime ministerial candidate
Narendra Modi, 63-year-old Chief Minister of the western state of
Gujarat.
Nearly 80% of those
surveyed by Pew had a positive view of Modi, with 60% describing their
impressions of him as very favorable. (By comparison, 50% held positive
views of Gandhi, with just 23% giving "very favorable" responses.) WATCH: India heads to the pollsModi's reputation as a
tough, "can-do" administrator rests largely on his record in charge of
Gujarat since 2001, a state whose economic success is often cited as an
example for the rest of the country.
The BJP's economic model
under Modi, focusing on infrastructure, urbanization and eradicating
red tape, contrasts sharply with the traditional approach of the
Congress Party, whose focus on promoting inclusive growth involves a
raft of welfare schemes.
Dilip Dutta, director of
the South Asian Studies Group at the University of Sydney, said Modi's
model was widely seen as offering better prospects of economic
development, particularly by the young voters tipped to play a key role
in the election. About 100 million voters will be eligible to vote for
the first time in 2014.
"They're getting some
hope that perhaps Modi can steer the economy in the right direction so
that they can get more in terms of job opportunities and economic
growth," he said. "These young voters are exposed through electronic
media to the whole world, and have a dream of moving forward -- not
lagging behind as their fathers and grandfathers have for decades."
Mohan Guruswamy, a
political analyst at Delhi's Center for Policy Alternatives, likens
Modi's economic vision for a "right-wing, authoritarian corporate state"
as closer to the model in China -- India's neighboring superpower whose
rapid economic ascent is eyed enviously from the subcontinent, where
GDP growth has dropped below 5%.
A Hindu nationalist at the helm?
In contrast to the
Congress Party's secularism, Modi is also notable as a Hindu nationalist
-- a position that resonates with large swathes of an increasingly
confident, assertive electorate, but gives pause to some among the
country's religious minorities.
"Internationally, he
would be a little more hardline on everything -- Pakistan, China,
America. Indian interests would be aggressively asserted," said
Guruswamy. "It plays well with the electorate, the new generation coming
up that's educated by the Internet -- they tend to be right-wing
nerds."
Their nationalist
perspective, he said, was informed by "a sense of victimhood, that we've
been victimized by foreigners -- by Muslim invaders, Christian
invaders."
But for all the
excitement around Modi, he comes with plenty of detractors. Chief among
them are those who question his suitability to lead a country as diverse
as India. In particular, his track record with India's 180
million-strong Muslim community, the country's second largest religious
group, has come under scrutiny.
Less than a year after
Modi assumed office in Gujarat in late 2001, the state was wracked with
anti-Muslim violence, in which more than 1000 people, mostly Muslims,
were killed. Modi was criticized for not doing enough to halt the
violence, accusations he has denied. The U.S. State Department denied
Modi a visa in 2005 over the issue, but last month said it would welcome
Modi to the United States if he wins.
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