Doth he protest too much?

Amid the gleaming interiors and high-end shops of Phnom Penh’s newly opened Aeon mall, Prime Minister Hun Sen yesterday saw something beyond the obvious leap forward for the Kingdom’s retail sector – the potential for chaos.

As he officially inaugurated the shopping centre at a ceremony attended by Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, the premier said that if Cambodia did not have peace and stability, foreign investment like that behind the mall would vanish.

Japan’s Aeon Group has invested more than $200 million in the project, which is providing jobs to more than 2,500 Cambodians. Hun Sen warned that strikes for higher wages would paralyse business.

“Please, all youths, try to work hard for the success of the mall. If Aeon does not make profits, the mall bosses will not increase your salaries. There is no need to protest to destroy the mall,” he said. “Don’t become good at protesting or create any protests that will make Aeon shut down.”

In an apparent reference to the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party, which the premier has previously accused of inciting garment workers to protest earlier this year, Hun Sen said that anyone who wanted to create instability in Cambodia was “a criminal”.

“Will anyone go to shop at Aeon Mall if the country is war-torn or when there is anarchy on the streets of the capital? There will be no one. Only peace and national reconciliation as well as political stability are the factors that serve the development of the country.”

Employees wait at the end of an aisle for customers during the inauguration of Aeon Mall in Phnom Penh yesterday. Hong Menea

The premier also used his distinguished Japanese guest, here on a three-day visit, to drive home the point about the consequences of losing foreign investment.

“Don’t play such things. If Mr Kishida returns back home, he will not die. But our 2,500 employees will die from losing their jobs. That’s the way it is,” he said.

Although the mall may not immediately spring to mind as a likely place of protest, the premier’s speech could end up as a self-fulfilling prophecy, said opposition party whip Son Chhay.

“By mentioning this, it’s like he is inviting people to protest at the mall. It’s very stupid to do,” he said.“The prime minister should understand that he is not running a communist state.

“Cambodia is supposed to be a liberal democratic country, and in a democratic countryfreedom of expression must be recognised.”

Ath Thorn, head of the Cambodian Labour Confederation, which represents a number of unions, also was quick to take umbrage with the premier’s warning.

“Staff working at Aeon are workers, so they have every right to nonviolently strike and protest based on the law if their bosses violate or exploit their benefits,” he said.

Thorn added that unionists would soon visit the mall to educate staff about their rights.

A store saleswoman at the mall who requested anonymity said she was receiving $120 a month and a $20 gasoline allowance on a probationary contract. She said workers were earning an additional $1 for each overtime hour worked.

“It’s too early to say anything about the working conditions, but it’s OK at present,” she said.

Social and political analyst Kem Ley said that by raising the issue of protests at the mall opening, the premier was making it clear the government is still scared of a protest movement taking off in the Kingdom.

“He’s scared. Why? Because many people right now [are willing to protest], not just land rights activists or factory workers but a new movement from all corners of society,” he said.

After almost 800,000 Occupy Central 'votes,' Hong Kong readies for massive protest

July 1, 2014, the 17th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to Chinese rule, is set to be a hot, possibly stormy day.But the suffocating weather won't stop pro-democracy Hong Kongers -- possibly hundreds of thousands of them -- from filling the streets, beginning at 3 p.m today. Activists are openly challenging China's vision for the city's political future, and they believe the public is on their side.In a recent unofficial referendum organized by pro-democracy activist group Occupy Central with Love and Peace (OCLP), 787,767 Hong Kongers voted in support of free elections for the city's next leader.READ MORE: Hong Kong's 'referendum' -- What you should knowThe almost-800,000 figure represents about 22% of registered voters in Hong Kong, out of a total of 3.5 million registered voters, according to government figures. Before the vote began ten days ago, organizers were hoping around 100,000 people would participate.

Benny Tai, a co-organiser of OCLP, said Hong Kongers were "using this opportunity to at least show Beijing how determined we are for universal suffrage."Hong Kong's former second-highest-ranked official, Anson Chan, echoed the sentiment in an interview with CNN on Monday."Whatever Beijing says in public now I think it can hardly afford to ignore the voices of 780,000 people."But the Chinese government's reaction was decidedly more frosty, with the government declaring the poll "illegal" and its results "invalid" even before the ballots were counted.Rimsky Yuen, Hong Kong's Secretary for Justice, has previously said there is no legal basis for the vote.

Yuen, as well a number of other, pro-establishment voices, declined to speak to CNN.
A recent Chinese state media editorial said the poll was a "farce." Searches for the referendum have also been heavily censored on the Chinese internet.Showdown over democracyThe city's pro-democracy camp wants fully democratic elections for the city's next leader, while China insists it will only allow elections in which it gets to approve the nominees. Specifically, Beijing says it will only allow candidates who "love China."The Occupy Central referendum outlined three plans to reform the upcoming election. All three plans proposed that candidates be nominated publicly, regardless of whether the candidates have Beijing's blessing.42% of participants picked a proposal by the Alliance for True Democracy, which said candidates for Hong Kong's chief executive should be nominated by the public, and conditions such as requiring candidates to "love China" should not be allowed.

Another question asked if Hong Kong's legislature should veto any nomination process that did not meet "international standards." This was overwhelmingly approved in the referendum.
The high numbers are a sign that Hong Kongers are not about to back down, said Tai.
"We have an offer and we have a baseline, and this is the thing we will give to the (Hong Kong government)," he told CNN. "I think a responsible government must respond to that. I cannot see any reason for refusing to meet with us."
But if negotiations fail, and no progress is made through legal means, then the group is prepared to disrupt the city to make their statement heard. As a final strategy, Tai says his group may marshal 10,000 people to sit and peacefully block traffic in downtown Hong Kong as a way to pressure Beijing into allowing Hong Kong to exercise "genuine universal suffrage."
"We will only resort to the civil disobedience action as our last resort," said Tai. "Only after exhausting all the legal means and still fail to achieve our goals will we resort to civil disobedience."
Grassroots support
The city is politicized like at no other time in its recent past. While the July 1st anniversary of the handover has always brought demonstrators out onto Hong Kong's hot, crowded streets, often numbering over 100,000, this year protests are expected to be super-sized.
Many Hong Kongers are enraged after the recent publication of a white paper by the Chinese government which declares Beijing's "comprehensive jurisdiction" over Hong Kong.
READ MORE: Alarm in Hong Kong at Chinese white paper affirming Beijing control
Chan said the white paper violates the "one country, two systems" principle enshrined in Hong Kong's constitutional Basic Law, which lets the city maintain high autonomy despite being a part of China.
The white paper "makes it quite clear that whatever autonomy we enjoy is for the central government to give and to take away at its pleasure," she said. "I think this has caused real concern."
The inflammatory document came days after 100,000 people showed up to an annual candlelit vigil for the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
"(The white paper) has spectacularly backfired, it's made people even more angry," Chan said.
What's next?
The situation in Hong Kong is volatile. Some activists fear a crackdown on freedoms by the Chinese central government, and others look nervously to the possibility of unrest at tomorrow's mass protest.
Michael DeGolyer, Director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, an independent organization that monitors governance in the territory, said the future is incredibly difficult to assess because no one is totally sure what China's officials are thinking.
"We're in a situation where we have a new regime in power and much more volatile circumstances, and we have groups that are much more separatist, challenging the legitimacy of the central government altogether," he said.
"In these circumstances, it is extremely difficult to tell what the central government intends and what they're thinking and how they'll react."
But despite the uncertainty, Hong Kong's democracy supporters remain hopeful.
"I do not think Beijing has made up its mind on universal suffrage, so let's see what happens in the months ahead," said Chan.
"The government stance has a little bit softened in the last few days. There's a chance there," said Tai. "After (the July 1 protest), we may be able to see whether there's any change in the stance of the Chinese government."

Hong Kong Lawyers in Mass Silent Protest Over China's White Paper

 
Nearly 2,000 members of Hong Kong's legal profession, wearing black, marched silently on Friday to the territory's highest court in protest over a recent white paper by China asserting Beijing's power and declaring that Hong Kong judges should be "patriotic."

The white paper, issued on June 10 amid growing political tension surrounding the democratic process in the upcoming 2017 chief executive race, categorizes judges in Hong Kong as administrators who need to be "patriotic," as well as asserting Beijing's "comprehensive jurisdiction" over the former British colony.

The paper has been roundly criticized by the influential Hong Kong Bar Association, while a retired judge and two leading law deans came out in support of Friday's marchers.

Some 1,800 lawyers, legal scholars, and law students wearing black gathered outside the High Court in Admiralty at around 5.00 p.m. and marched to the Court of Final Appeal.

A University of Hong Kong law student surnamed Chan, who took part in the march, said he was marching in solidarity with the territory's widely trusted judicial system.

"I am afraid that Hong Kong's judicial independence is coming under political pressure, and I fear it will waver," Chan said.

"That's why I have come out in support of it," he said.

A few dozen pro-Beijing protesters also gathered at the start of the march, shouting "we support the white paper!"

Judicial independence threatened

Hong Kong Civic Party Chairman Audrey Eu, herself a lawyer by profession, said Beijing's white paper had sparked widespread fears that the ruling Chinese Communist Party would start micromanaging Hong Kong, despite having promised the territory "a high degree of autonomy" ahead of its1997 handover from Britain.
"There were some areas of this white paper that weren't in line with the Basic Law or the principle of 'one country, two systems,'" Eu said, referring to Hong Kong's miniconstitution.

"There is a big conflict with Hong Kong's judicial independence," Eu said.

"Judges have always enjoyed judicial independence here in Hong Kong, and they are not a part of the executive," she said. "Judges must swear an oath to uphold the Basic Law, not any government."

She said the turnout of lawyers in public protest was the largest seen since the handover.

"This has been a huge response," Eu said.

Beijing-based rights lawyer Teng Biao also took part in the march.

"Judicial independence is so important for the rule of law, and it should be defended at all times and in all places," Teng said.

"Hong Kong people have always cared about the human rights situation in mainland China ... so I feel a personal duty to march alongside Hong Kong people at this crucial juncture, to defend the rule of law," he said.

Media, computer attacks

Tensions are running high in Hong Kong following a series of attacks in Chinese state media on an unofficial referendum on the democratic process and a massive cyberattack on the poll's website.

More than 740,000 people have cast ballots since the mostly online PopVote poll opened last Friday, while organizers of the Occupy Central civil disobedience movement have vowed to blockade Hong Kong's business district if universal suffrage and public nomination of candidates are denied to the city's voters.

The poll has been repeatedly slammed as "illegal" by China's state-controlled media, and Beijing's hard-line response may have boosted the numbers taking part, political commentators say.

Hong Kong Justice Secretary Rimsky Yuen said the white paper "carries no intention to impose requirements other than those in the Basic Law on judges," local media reported.

However, Professor Johannes Chan, dean of law at the University of Hong Kong, said Beijing seems to have changed its previous approach.

"I do think that the white paper represents a change in approach towards Hong Kong and that the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary is threatened," Chan told the South China Morning Post before joining the march.

Junta action a ‘violation’

 

Prime Minister Hun Sen yesterday had sharp words for neighbouring Thailand, criticising the junta-led country for abusing the rights of Cambodian workers in what he called the largest-ever repatriation effort seen by the Kingdom.Speaking at an event in the capital attended by the Thai ambassador, the premier said it was “a violation” to return more than 250,000 migrant workers this month without prior notification, and appealed to the junta to release 13 Cambodians arrested for allegedly using fake visas.“I would like to ask [coup leader] General Prayuth Chan-ocha to drop all charges against them,” he said, adding that the detained workers are innocent of any wrongdoing, but are themselves victims of a scam after they paid for legal visas only to receive fake documents instead. 

“The workers cannot read Thai, so they didn’t know if the visa was fake or not,” he added, ahead of a meeting today between high-ranking officials from the two governments on the Thai side of the border.The prime minister had, until yesterday, stayed quiet regarding the sudden, mass exodus of Cambodian workers from Thailand. He revealed, however, that he has been communicating with General Prayuth through letters, and was informed earlier this month that Thailand was enforcing migrant-worker policies to curb human trafficking, though there was “no intention to use force or to expel the migrants”.The premier also tried to lend a positive note to the situation, calling it an opportunity to turn “illegal status” into more secure “legal work overseas”.

Last week, the Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training announced that it would provide workers and students with $4 passports, and also recently banned recruitment agencies from charging workers any commission fee. The new, yet-to-be-implemented, legalisation process will cost $49 and involve a two-and-a-half-month waiting period as all documents are procured. 

“It’s a good measure in theory, but it’s not going to work,” said political analyst Kem Ley. “It doesn’t take into account indirect costs or opportunity costs, like to travel [to one of two passport offices in the country] and housing costs while the workers wait, during which they will be losing income by not working.”Hun Sen said yesterday that he hopes to resolve such issues by opening a passport office in every province, though did not elaborate on how or when that could be accomplished.

The opposition denigrated the government’s efforts however, faulting the head of state for talking loudly but not talking more concrete steps to assist the workers, especially the 13 who could face trial in Thailand.“By just announcing his position, he’s not actually doing anything,” opposition lawmaker Son Chhay said yesterday. “As the leader of the country, the prime minister is responsible for getting [the jailed workers] home.” 

Chhay added that there are “many diplomatic channels available”, recalling that when Thailand has taken issue with Cambodia in the past, they closed the border.Hun Sen showed no interest in retaliating however, and both countries have maintained they are cooperating over the bilateral issue. Senior officials from both governments are set to meet today for a press conference on the Thai side of the Poipet-Aranyaprathet border, and the prime minister said he expects an envoy from Thailand to visit Phnom Penh on July 1.Addressing the workers yesterday, Hun Sen told them that they do not have to go abroad for jobs.“Although wages here are lower than what you earn in Thailand, if you compare to fees you spend to get illegally to Thailand, it is not so much less,” he said, adding that “working in our country is safer”. 

On Wednesday, the National Employment Agency put out a statement advertising 16,146 vacant jobs largely in the garment sector, aiming to prove the government could in fact employ the recently returned migrant workers.“There are probably enough jobs if you include all the availability in the agriculture and construction sectors,” said Hong Choeun, director general of the agency.

Choeun also refuted yesterday the workers’ claims that they make too little in Cambodia to afford to live.“Not all unskilled Cambodian workers go to Thailand, so they must earn enough,” he said. “Thailand was like a gold rush of people, because they heard they could make more money, but now the gold rush is over.”

Compromise of sorts on dam

 

In an unexpected decision yesterday, Lower Mekong countries opened a two-day meeting in Bangkok by jointly agreeing a controversial hydropower dam must undergo regional consultation but could continue construction.Laos’s delegation to the Mekong River Commission – the intergovernmental body responsible for facilitating cooperation along the river – announced that it would yield to neighbouring countries’ demands and submit its Don Sahong Hydropower Project to further evaluation by member countries. 

The Lao government representatives made it clear, however, that they were not willing to halt construction on the $300 million project located less than 2 kilometres north of Cambodia.

“This is a problem, because it means that the most influence the other countries can hope to have is to provide input on how it is built and what sort of mitigation measures are used,” said Ame Trandem, Southeast Asia program director at International Rivers. “But under international law, affected countries have the right to request more studies and have a say in the project before it moves forward.”Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam have all requested that the Don Sahong’s Malaysian developers Mega First Corporation Berhad postpone assembly until transboundary impact assessments could be conducted to determine what kind of effects the dam may have on the 60 million residents relying on the Mekong, as well as several volatile migratory fish species. But the developers have so far not complied.

“There are options to sustainably manage the water resource that will allow [the countries] to meet power demands while conserving the ecological integrity of the Mekong,” said Marc Goichot, hydropower specialist at World Wildlife Foundation. “We do not need to take inconsiderable risks with Lower Mekong mainstream dams.”The Don Sahong is the second of nine hydropower dams that Laos plans to use to boost its economy, which is currently the smallest of the ASEAN states.

Earlier this week, the Thai courts accepted a lawsuit against the first of Laos’s dams, the 1,285-megawatt Xayaburi dam, based in part on the lack of scientific study proving that it would not harm downstream villagers.

US interests in East and East China seas at stake

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel.

In his papers presented at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on US-China relations on June 26, Daniel Russel noted that the United States has important interests at stake in the South China and East China seas.
The US diplomat stressed that in the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing’s neighbors are understandably alarmed by China’s increasingly coercive efforts to assert and enforce its claims in the South China and East China Seas. A pattern of unilateral Chinese actions in sensitive and disputed areas is raising tensions and damaging China’s international standing. China as a strong and rising power should hold itself to a high standard of behavior; to willfully disregard diplomatic and other peaceful ways of dealing with disagreements and disputes in favor of economic or physical coercion is destabilizing and dangerous.
Daniel Russel called on countries, including China to manage or settle claims through peaceful, diplomatic means, citing that the Philippines and Indonesia have just done so in connection with their exclusive economic zone (EEZ) boundary. Disputes can also be addressed through third-party dispute resolution processes. Where parties’ rights under treaties may be affected, some treaties provide for third-party dispute settlement, as is the case of the Law of the Sea Convention, an avenue pursued by the Philippines in an arbitration with China currently being considered by an Arbitral Tribunal constituted under that treaty.
The United States and the international community oppose the use or the threat of force to try to advance a claim, and view such actions as having no effect in strengthening the legitimacy of China’s claims.
These issues should be decided on the basis of the merits of China’s and other claimants’ legal claims and adherence to international law and norms, not the strength of their militaries and law enforcement ships or the size of their economies.
He added that US Secretary of State John Kerry will attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Myanmar in August and will have intensive discussions on a number of confidence building measures, crisis prevention solutions, setting up a hotline and dealing with unexpected incidents.
At the hearing, Professor of Politics and International Affairs from Princeton University Aaron L.Friedberg said that in the past five years China has used stronger, more strident language and more assertive, and at times, forceful actions to assert its claims to control the waters and air space off its eastern seaboard.
Professor of Politics and International Affairs from Princeton University Aaron L.Friedberg .
“Chinese spokesmen have sought to deny that any shift has taken place, or to explain those changes that have occurred as mere reactions to the behavior of others. With the passage of time such claims have become increasingly difficult to sustain. Examples of China’s growing assertiveness continue to multiply.
The most recent include Beijing’s unilateral declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone that covers Japanese‐controlled islands in the East China Sea in November of last year, the deliberate near‐collision of a PLAN vessel with the US Navy cruiser Cowpens in December and, in the past two months, the deployment of oil rigs and a small armada of naval and maritime patrol vessels into waters claimed by Vietnam.” Friedberg said.
According to Mr Friedberg, over the last two decades China has sought opportunities to enhance their country’s influence and strengthen its position, while simultaneously attempting to erode and constrict those of the United States. Beijing’s recent behavior suggests an adjustment in tactics and timelines rather than a fundamental shift in strategy. China is pushing harder to achieve its long‐standing goals.
In addition to advancing its claims to control most of the water and resources off its coasts, it is using calibrated threats in an attempt to intimidate its neighbors, demonstrate the inadequacy of US security guarantees, and, if possible, to drive wedges between the United States and some of its regional friends and allies. China’s increased assertiveness reflects a mix of arrogance and insecurity. Following the onset of the global financial crisis, many Chinese analysts and policy makers concluded that the United States had entered into a period of unexpectedly rapid decline in its relative power and influence.
With their country’s fortunes seemingly on the rise, some argued that the time had come for China, if not to abandon “hiding and biding,” then at least to adopt a more forward‐leaning posture in its dealings with the rest of the world. Chinese planners appear to have concluded that, at least for the next several years, the US will continue to be strategically preoccupied and fiscally constrained. If it plays its cards right during this period, China can “create facts” and consolidate its position.
“China’s recent actions are deliberately dangerous. Its leaders are manipulating risk or they are knowingly creating hazardous situations in the hope that others will back down. Even if it is not intended to do so, such behavior could easily lead to confrontation and escalation. In the long run, China’s assertiveness could also turn out to be counterproductive and even self‐defeating. If its Asian nations respond by increasing their own capabilities and working more closely with one another and with the United States they may be able to block Beijing’s initiatives and balance its power. But such an outcome is not automatic or inevitable.
In the absence of an effective American response, China may yet be able to successfully pursue a divide and conquer strategy: intimidating some of its neighbors into acquiescence while isolating and demoralizing others. Indeed, this appears to be precisely what Beijing is now trying to do: reaching out to Washington and proclaiming its desire to form a “new type great power relationship” with the United States, while at the same time ratcheting up pressure on key targets, especially US allies Japan and the Philippines, as well as Vietnam”, said Professor Friedberg.